{
  "schema_version": 2,
  "as_of": "2026-09-06T03:21:44Z",
  "timezone": "Asia/Shanghai",
  "method": "Official X API full-archive/recent search. Each reset is the unit of analysis. Timeline nodes retain source, post time, evidence relationship and distance to the observed outcome. First-party confirmation is ground truth; individual account reports remain weak observations unless stronger evidence upgrades the event.",
  "methodology": {
    "unit": "confirmed_reset_event",
    "ground_truth": "A first-party @thsottiaux confirmation or an explicitly recorded banked-reset delivery observation.",
    "timeline_order": "Exact timestamps are sorted chronologically. Approximate or missing relay timestamps are disclosed as evidence gaps and never invented.",
    "lead_time": "Minutes from a signal's publication time to the event outcome. Positive values mean advance notice; post-event observations use lag minutes.",
    "source_assessment": "Source reliability and post credibility are separate dimensions. A usually useful scout can still publish a weak or stale post.",
    "accuracy_boundary": "This event-conditioned audit measures coverage. It cannot estimate prediction precision because non-event-day false positives are not fully archived."
  },
  "summary": {
    "events": 12,
    "first_party_confirmation": 12,
    "any_first_party_advance_signal": 11,
    "clear_actionable_advance_signal": 8,
    "weak_or_ambiguous_advance_signal": 3,
    "no_usable_first_party_advance_signal": 1,
    "community_incremental_recall": 1,
    "community_incremental_recall_quality": "single-account-low-confidence",
    "median_any_first_party_lead_minutes": 1115,
    "median_clear_first_party_lead_minutes": 709,
    "mean_all_reset_gap_minutes": 4959,
    "median_all_reset_gap_minutes": 3128,
    "mean_hard_reset_gap_minutes": 5928,
    "median_hard_reset_gap_minutes": 3706
  },
  "events": [
    {
      "sequence": 1,
      "id": "reset-2026-09-05-banked",
      "kind": "banked_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-09-05T00:39:25.000Z",
      "observed_available_at": "2026-09-05T01:20:29.000Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-09-05T01:20:29.000Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "社区账户确认连续第二天的 Astra 补偿用可储存重置卡已经到账；一手来源已将范围扩大到所有 Plus、Pro 和 Business 用户。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2096035437299237298",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2096035437299237298",
        "summary_zh": "宣布当天向所有 Plus、Pro 和 Business 用户发放完整的可储存重置卡。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2095979536043401428",
        "created_at": "2026-09-04T20:57:17.000Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2095979536043401428",
        "summary_zh": "先宣布为当天仍未获得 Astra 的部分 Plus 和 Business 用户补发一张可储存重置卡。",
        "lead_minutes": 263
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2096035437299237298",
        "created_at": "2026-09-05T00:39:25.000Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2096035437299237298",
        "summary_zh": "明确扩展到所有 Plus、Pro 和 Business 用户，并说明当天结束前发放。",
        "lead_minutes": 41
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2095979536043401428",
          "published_at": "2026-09-04T20:57:17.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2095979536043401428",
          "summary_zh": "一手来源先承诺为当天仍未获得 Astra 的部分 Plus 和 Business 用户补发可储存重置卡。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 263
        },
        {
          "stage": "scope_expansion",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2096035437299237298",
          "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:39:25.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2096035437299237298",
          "summary_zh": "一手来源把发放范围扩大到所有 Plus、Pro 和 Business 用户，说明当天结束前到账。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 41
        },
        {
          "stage": "relay",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "argofowl",
          "post_id": "2096042415769501778",
          "published_at": "2026-09-05T01:07:09.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/argofowl/status/2096042415769501778",
          "summary_zh": "社区账号转述所有用户会再得到一张可储存重置卡；内容依赖同一条一手公告。",
          "signal_quality": "medium",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 13
        },
        {
          "stage": "observed_delivery",
          "role": "personal_observation",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": "2096045774505136257",
          "published_at": "2026-09-05T01:20:29.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/hqmank/status/2096045774505136257",
          "summary_zh": "社区账户观察到又一张可储存重置卡到账，并说明这已是自己累计收到的第三张。该观察证明至少已有账户到账，不代表所有账户同时到账。",
          "signal_quality": "weak_observation",
          "evidence_relation": "observation",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [],
      "community_note_zh": "@hqmank 提供到账观察；@argofowl 的较早帖子是对同一条一手公告的转述，不算独立预测。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 2,
      "id": "reset-2026-09-04-banked",
      "kind": "banked_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-09-03T23:12:09.000Z",
      "observed_available_at": "2026-09-04T04:27:04.000Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-09-04T04:27:04.000Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "社区账户确认 Astra rollout 补偿的首张可储存重置卡已经到账；它是一张可保存、手动使用的重置权益。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2095651088502591861",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2095651088502591861",
        "summary_zh": "承诺从当天开始，为尚未获得 Astra 的付费用户每天发放一张可储存重置卡。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2095651088502591861",
        "created_at": "2026-09-03T23:12:09.000Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2095651088502591861",
        "summary_zh": "明确说明第一张约三小时后开始发放；到首个保留的社区到账观察约提前 5 小时 15 分。",
        "lead_minutes": 315
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2095651088502591861",
        "created_at": "2026-09-03T23:12:09.000Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2095651088502591861",
        "summary_zh": "明确承诺当天发放，并说明它是可储存重置卡而非自动全量重置。",
        "lead_minutes": 315
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "official_announcement",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2095651088502591861",
          "published_at": "2026-09-03T23:12:09.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2095651088502591861",
          "summary_zh": "宣布为每一个尚未获得 Astra 的等待日发放一张可储存重置卡，第一张约三小时后开始到账。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 315
        },
        {
          "stage": "relay",
          "role": "scout",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": "2095677033384956221",
          "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:55:15.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/hqmank/status/2095677033384956221",
          "summary_zh": "把一手承诺转述成“获得 Astra，或者每等一天得到一张可储存重置卡”，方便发现但没有新增独立证据。",
          "signal_quality": "medium",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 212
        },
        {
          "stage": "relay",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "UsageReset",
          "post_id": "2095692497527734325",
          "published_at": "2026-09-04T01:56:42.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/UsageReset/status/2095692497527734325",
          "summary_zh": "自动分发账号转述一手承诺并标成可能即将到账；仍然依赖同一上游。",
          "signal_quality": "medium",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 150
        },
        {
          "stage": "observed_delivery",
          "role": "personal_observation",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": "2095730340065317303",
          "published_at": "2026-09-04T04:27:04.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/hqmank/status/2095730340065317303",
          "summary_zh": "社区账户明确表示可储存重置卡已经出现在自己的账号中。该节点证明至少一个账户到账，不代表所有账户同时到账。",
          "signal_quality": "weak_observation",
          "evidence_relation": "observation",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [],
      "community_note_zh": "@hqmank 和 @UsageReset 都在到账前转述了同一条一手承诺；它们提高分发速度，但不是两份独立证据。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 3,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-31-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-31T02:29:25.303Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-31T02:29:25.303Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：付费 ChatGPT Work 与 Codex 用户的全局额度重置已经开始传播。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2094251180121854309",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094251180121854309",
        "summary_zh": "25M 里程碑重置开始传播。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2093573991965557198",
        "created_at": "2026-08-29T05:38:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093573991965557198",
        "summary_zh": "里程碑暗示，方向正确但时间不清楚。",
        "lead_minutes": 2691
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2094144275957350900",
        "created_at": "2026-08-30T19:24:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094144275957350900",
        "summary_zh": "明确给出 6pm PST。",
        "lead_minutes": 425
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2093573991965557198",
          "published_at": "2026-08-29T05:38:31.065Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093573991965557198",
          "summary_zh": "先提到即将达到新里程碑并让大家“hold on to your Codex”，方向正确，但没有给出 reset 时间。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 2691
        },
        {
          "stage": "community_inference",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "UsageReset",
          "post_id": "2094037516391198915",
          "published_at": "2026-08-30T12:20:23.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/UsageReset/status/2094037516391198915",
          "summary_zh": "根据一手里程碑和 reset-button 语境推断次日会重置；属于转述推断，不是独立证据。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 849
        },
        {
          "stage": "community_inference",
          "role": "scout",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": "2094039588113432669",
          "published_at": "2026-08-30T12:28:37.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/hqmank/status/2094039588113432669",
          "summary_zh": "直白转述“明天重置”，便于用户发现消息，但仍依赖同一条一手线索。",
          "signal_quality": "medium",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 841
        },
        {
          "stage": "actionable_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2094144275957350900",
          "published_at": "2026-08-30T19:24:37.364Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094144275957350900",
          "summary_zh": "一手消息明确给出当天 6pm PST，第一次达到可操作的提前提醒标准。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 425
        },
        {
          "stage": "relay",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "UsageReset",
          "post_id": "2094144533923602740",
          "published_at": "2026-08-30T19:25:38.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/UsageReset/status/2094144533923602740",
          "summary_zh": "转发明确预告，比分发源晚约 61 秒。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 424
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2094251180121854309",
          "published_at": "2026-08-31T02:29:25.303Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094251180121854309",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认全局重置已经执行。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        },
        {
          "stage": "individual_observation",
          "role": "personal_observation",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": "2094254074711732469",
          "published_at": "2026-08-31T02:40:55.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/hqmank/status/2094254074711732469",
          "summary_zh": "个人账户反馈自己也已经到账；能补充执行观察，但不能单独证明全局覆盖。",
          "signal_quality": "weak_observation",
          "evidence_relation": "observation",
          "timing": "after",
          "distance_minutes": 11
        },
        {
          "stage": "verification_relay",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "UsageReset",
          "post_id": "2094255997170630819",
          "published_at": "2026-08-31T02:48:33.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/UsageReset/status/2094255997170630819",
          "summary_zh": "确认型转发，说明已观察到执行结果。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed_relay",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "after",
          "distance_minutes": 19
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [],
      "community_note_zh": "@UsageReset 对明确预告的转发只慢 61 秒；更早推断仍来自同一条一手线索。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 4,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-30-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-29T20:43:34.878Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-29T20:43:34.878Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：修复多项额度消耗问题后，付费用户额度被重置。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2093801758665715784",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093801758665715784",
        "summary_zh": "修复多项额度消耗问题并重置。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2093551005711679557",
        "created_at": "2026-08-29T04:07:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093551005711679557",
        "summary_zh": "说 soon, but not today；可能对应本次，也可能对应下一次。",
        "lead_minutes": 996
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": null,
      "advance_quality": "weak",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2093551005711679557",
          "published_at": "2026-08-29T04:07:10.715Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093551005711679557",
          "summary_zh": "只说“soon, but not today”，可能指本次，也可能指下一次，不能当成明确排期。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 996
        },
        {
          "stage": "relay",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "UsageReset",
          "post_id": "2093592104383512849",
          "published_at": "2026-08-29T06:50:29.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/UsageReset/status/2093592104383512849",
          "summary_zh": "把一手的 soon 转成可能重置提醒，但事件归属仍有歧义。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 833
        },
        {
          "stage": "community_inference",
          "role": "scout",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": "2093594757683613833",
          "published_at": "2026-08-29T07:01:01.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/hqmank/status/2093594757683613833",
          "summary_zh": "转述为“明天重置”；更直白，但并没有新增一手证据。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 823
        },
        {
          "stage": "community_inference",
          "role": "rumor",
          "author": "kimmonismus",
          "post_id": "2093605406719279562",
          "published_at": "2026-08-29T07:43:20.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2093605406719279562",
          "summary_zh": "继续放大“明天重置”，并附带动机推测；后者没有一手证据。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 780
        },
        {
          "stage": "community_inference",
          "role": "rumor",
          "author": "argofowl",
          "post_id": "2093667781904679375",
          "published_at": "2026-08-29T11:51:12.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/argofowl/status/2093667781904679375",
          "summary_zh": "再次转述会重置并猜测里程碑数值；属于同源放大。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 532
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2093801758665715784",
          "published_at": "2026-08-29T20:43:34.878Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093801758665715784",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认修复并重置。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [],
      "community_note_zh": "@UsageReset 约提前 14 小时转述，但事件归属有歧义。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 5,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-28-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-27T16:35:05.348Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-27T16:35:05.348Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：ChatGPT Work 与 Codex 用户获得新的额度。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2093014447833116908",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093014447833116908",
        "summary_zh": "确认获得 brand new usage。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2092862554632826968",
        "created_at": "2026-08-27T06:31:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2092862554632826968",
        "summary_zh": "reset button 暗示。",
        "lead_minutes": 604
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2092862554632826968",
        "created_at": "2026-08-27T06:31:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2092862554632826968",
        "summary_zh": "结合历史语境可识别为较强提示，但仍需保留原帖。",
        "lead_minutes": 604
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2092862554632826968",
          "published_at": "2026-08-27T06:31:31.187Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2092862554632826968",
          "summary_zh": "一手的 reset-button 暗示；结合连续历史可识别，但原文仍不是正式排期。",
          "signal_quality": "clear_contextual",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 604
        },
        {
          "stage": "relay",
          "role": "scout",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": "2092888428392444384",
          "published_at": "2026-08-27T08:14:19.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/hqmank/status/2092888428392444384",
          "summary_zh": "把暗示转成“明天可能重置”，方便发现，但仍明确保留 probably。",
          "signal_quality": "medium",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 501
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2093014447833116908",
          "published_at": "2026-08-27T16:35:05.348Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093014447833116908",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认已经获得 brand new usage。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        },
        {
          "stage": "verification_relay",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "UsageReset",
          "post_id": "2093041141138526615",
          "published_at": "2026-08-27T18:21:09.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/UsageReset/status/2093041141138526615",
          "summary_zh": "确认型转发，晚于官方确认 1 小时 46 分。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed_relay",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "after",
          "distance_minutes": 106
        },
        {
          "stage": "stale_signal",
          "role": "relay",
          "author": "UsageReset",
          "post_id": "2093051462834172132",
          "published_at": "2026-08-27T19:02:10.000Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/UsageReset/status/2093051462834172132",
          "summary_zh": "又发出“明天可能重置”的 incoming 提醒，但本次已经发生，因此记为 stale。",
          "signal_quality": "stale",
          "evidence_relation": "derivative",
          "timing": "after",
          "distance_minutes": 147
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [],
      "community_note_zh": "@hqmank 提前约 8 小时转述；@UsageReset 的 incoming 出现在重置后，属于 stale。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 6,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-24-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-24T00:46:51.902Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-24T00:46:51.902Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：修复已传播，随后完成全局额度重置。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2091688655828246890",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2091688655828246890",
        "summary_zh": "修复已传播，并完成重置。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2091407991736332689",
        "created_at": "2026-08-23T06:11:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2091407991736332689",
        "summary_zh": "明确说明次日 full reset。",
        "lead_minutes": 1115
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2091407991736332689",
        "created_at": "2026-08-23T06:11:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2091407991736332689",
        "summary_zh": "明确的未来 hard reset。",
        "lead_minutes": 1115
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2091407991736332689",
          "published_at": "2026-08-23T06:11:36.368Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2091407991736332689",
          "summary_zh": "一手明确说明次日会进行 full reset。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 1115
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2091688655828246890",
          "published_at": "2026-08-24T00:46:51.902Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2091688655828246890",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认修复已传播并完成重置。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [
        "审计笔记记录 @UsageReset 约提前 14 小时转述、比一手晚约 4.5 小时，但当前数据切片没有保留可核验的 post ID 与秒级时间，因此不补造时间轴节点。"
      ],
      "community_note_zh": "@UsageReset 约提前 14 小时转述，但比一手消息晚约 4.5 小时。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 7,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-21-banked",
      "kind": "banked_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-21T11:43:19.287Z",
      "observed_available_at": "2026-08-22T01:16:00Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-22T01:16:00Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "社区随后观察到 banked reset 已可用；它需要保存或手动使用，不等同自动 hard reset。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2090766694897619318",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2090766694897619318",
        "summary_zh": "宣布发放 20M banked reset。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2090766694897619318",
        "created_at": "2026-08-21T11:43:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2090766694897619318",
        "summary_zh": "同一帖说明当天发放；到社区观察到账约 13 小时 33 分。",
        "lead_minutes": 813
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2090766694897619318",
        "created_at": "2026-08-21T11:43:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2090766694897619318",
        "summary_zh": "明确发放 banked reset，但不是自动 hard reset。",
        "lead_minutes": 813
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "official_announcement",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2090766694897619318",
          "published_at": "2026-08-21T11:43:19.287Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2090766694897619318",
          "summary_zh": "宣布当天发放 20M 里程碑 banked reset。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 813
        },
        {
          "stage": "observed_delivery",
          "role": "personal_observation",
          "author": "hqmank",
          "post_id": null,
          "published_at": "2026-08-22T01:16:00Z",
          "url": null,
          "summary_zh": "社区账户观察到 banked reset 已经可用。该节点保留到账观察时间，但当前切片没有原帖 ID。",
          "signal_quality": "weak_observation",
          "evidence_relation": "observation",
          "evidence_status": "timestamp_without_post_id",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [
        "到账观察缺少当前可核验的 post ID，因此只作为执行侧弱证据，不升级为新的官方确认。"
      ],
      "community_note_zh": "@UsageReset 未覆盖；@hqmank 后续提供到账观察，不是提前预测。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 8,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-13-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-13T01:01:37.748Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-13T01:01:37.748Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：15M 里程碑对应的重置在下一小时落地。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2087706104814023111",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2087706104814023111",
        "summary_zh": "15M，说明重置将在下一小时落地。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2087423996115681767",
        "created_at": "2026-08-12T06:20:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2087423996115681767",
        "summary_zh": "说明明天有惊喜，结合上下文可识别。",
        "lead_minutes": 1121
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2087423996115681767",
        "created_at": "2026-08-12T06:20:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2087423996115681767",
        "summary_zh": "历史语境下是较强提示，但通知仍需标注为暗示。",
        "lead_minutes": 1121
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2087423996115681767",
          "published_at": "2026-08-12T06:20:37.793Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2087423996115681767",
          "summary_zh": "说明“明天有惊喜”；结合此前里程碑与 reset 语境，记为语境型清楚提示。",
          "signal_quality": "clear_contextual",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 1121
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2087706104814023111",
          "published_at": "2026-08-13T01:01:37.748Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2087706104814023111",
          "summary_zh": "明确说明 15M，并称重置将在下一小时落地。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [
        "审计笔记记录 @hqmank 约提前 14 小时转述，但没有保留可核验的 post ID 与精确时间。"
      ],
      "community_note_zh": "@hqmank 约提前 14 小时转述；@UsageReset 当时尚未上线。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 9,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-11-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-11T00:28:16.101Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-11T00:28:16.101Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：所有付费用户的额度已经重置。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2086972933566857393",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086972933566857393",
        "summary_zh": "所有付费用户已重置。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2086189414292865249",
        "created_at": "2026-08-08T20:34:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086189414292865249",
        "summary_zh": "在回复中明确说周一再重置。",
        "lead_minutes": 3113
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2086189414292865249",
        "created_at": "2026-08-08T20:34:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086189414292865249",
        "summary_zh": "明确的未来 hard reset，但藏在回复里。",
        "lead_minutes": 3113
      },
      "advance_quality": "clear",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2086189414292865249",
          "published_at": "2026-08-08T20:34:50.549Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086189414292865249",
          "summary_zh": "在回复中明确说周一会再次重置；这是隐藏回复型的高价值提前信号。",
          "signal_quality": "clear",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 3113
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2086972933566857393",
          "published_at": "2026-08-11T00:28:16.101Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086972933566857393",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认所有付费用户已重置。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [
        "@hqmank 很快放大了隐藏回复，审计估算约提前 47 小时；当前切片未保留精确原帖，因此不生成伪精确节点。"
      ],
      "community_note_zh": "@hqmank 很快放大隐藏回复，约提前 47 小时，是社区侦察员最有价值的样本。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 10,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-09-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-08T20:29:22.056Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-08T20:29:22.056Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：GPT-5.6 Sol 相关庆祝重置已经执行。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2086188036493344823",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086188036493344823",
        "summary_zh": "GPT-5.6 Sol 相关庆祝重置。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2085845171363791135",
        "created_at": "2026-08-07T21:46:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2085845171363791135",
        "summary_zh": "Theo needs a reset 的双关暗示。",
        "lead_minutes": 1362
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": null,
      "advance_quality": "weak",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2085845171363791135",
          "published_at": "2026-08-07T21:46:56.639Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2085845171363791135",
          "summary_zh": "“Theo needs a reset” 是双关暗示，事后方向正确，事前不能写成正式排期。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 1362
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2086188036493344823",
          "published_at": "2026-08-08T20:29:22.056Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086188036493344823",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认庆祝重置。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [],
      "community_note_zh": "大多数社区账号只在确认后转发；不能把双关直接标成排期。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 11,
      "id": "reset-2026-08-01-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-08-01T03:32:37.508Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-08-01T03:32:37.508Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：效率周末重置已经执行。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2083395449814229287",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2083395449814229287",
        "summary_zh": "效率周末重置。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": {
        "post_id": "2083053369351090257",
        "created_at": "2026-07-31T04:53:00Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2083053369351090257",
        "summary_zh": "把 resets 列为迹象，方向正确但不是明确排期。",
        "lead_minutes": 1359
      },
      "actionable_first_party_signal": null,
      "advance_quality": "weak",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2083053369351090257",
          "published_at": "2026-07-31T04:53:19.170Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2083053369351090257",
          "summary_zh": "把 resets 列为迹象，方向正确，但没有给出明确排期。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 1359
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2083395449814229287",
          "published_at": "2026-08-01T03:32:37.508Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2083395449814229287",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认效率周末重置。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": [
        "@hqmank 曾先转述 7 月 31 日会重置，随后又猜本周不重置；当前切片没有保留两条帖子的 ID 和精确时间，只保留矛盾样本结论。"
      ],
      "community_note_zh": "@hqmank 先转述 31 日会重置，随后又猜本周不重置，说明发现能力有用、判断不稳定。"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 12,
      "id": "reset-2026-07-29-hard",
      "kind": "hard_reset",
      "confirmed_at": "2026-07-29T04:09:02.981Z",
      "outcome_at": "2026-07-29T04:09:02.981Z",
      "outcome_summary_zh": "官方确认：Sol 使用效率修复后完成重置。",
      "confirmation": {
        "post_id": "2082317452755751098",
        "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2082317452755751098",
        "summary_zh": "Sol 使用效率修复并重置。"
      },
      "earliest_first_party_signal": null,
      "actionable_first_party_signal": null,
      "advance_quality": "none",
      "community_signal": {
        "author": "rezoundous",
        "post_id": "2081705220174930026",
        "created_at": "2026-07-27T11:36:15Z",
        "url": "https://x.com/rezoundous/status/2081705220174930026",
        "summary_zh": "单账号估计 7 月 29 日会重置。",
        "lead_minutes": 2433,
        "quality": "single-account-low-confidence"
      },
      "community_note_zh": "社区猜中日期，但缺少一手证据和完整误报分母，只能作为弱信号样本。",
      "timeline": [
        {
          "stage": "earliest_signal",
          "role": "rumor",
          "author": "rezoundous",
          "post_id": "2081705220174930026",
          "published_at": "2026-07-27T11:36:15.359Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/rezoundous/status/2081705220174930026",
          "summary_zh": "单一社区账号估计 7 月 29 日会重置；它猜中了日期，但没有一手证据支撑。",
          "signal_quality": "weak",
          "evidence_relation": "independent",
          "timing": "before",
          "distance_minutes": 2433
        },
        {
          "stage": "official_confirmation",
          "role": "first_party",
          "author": "thsottiaux",
          "post_id": "2082317452755751098",
          "published_at": "2026-07-29T04:09:02.981Z",
          "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2082317452755751098",
          "summary_zh": "官方确认 Sol 修复并重置。",
          "signal_quality": "confirmed",
          "evidence_relation": "original",
          "timing": "outcome",
          "distance_minutes": 0
        }
      ],
      "timeline_gaps": []
    }
  ],
  "recent_audit": {
    "schema_version": 1,
    "reviewed_at": "2026-10-31T17:29:55.669412+00:00",
    "coverage": "Eight source-verified October completion announcements; scope remains unspecified where not stated. Not an exhaustive monthly census or a new prediction backtest.",
    "events": [
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-28-verified",
        "kind": "hard_reset",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-28T06:29:38.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2115330127886463244",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115330127886463244",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "announcement",
            "post_id": "2115273064481218829",
            "at": "2026-10-28T02:42:53.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115273064481218829",
            "quote": "Just kidding, today is a reset."
          },
          {
            "stage": "timing_update",
            "post_id": "2115273253711409208",
            "at": "2026-10-28T02:43:38.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115273253711409208",
            "quote": "Lands by midnight PST."
          },
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2115330127886463244",
            "at": "2026-10-28T06:29:38.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115330127886463244",
            "quote": "And it's done. See you tomorrow for some good news. https://t.co/WhJle2cWRG"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-25-verified",
        "kind": "hard_reset",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-25T06:06:16.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2114237083652882932",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2114237083652882932",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "announcement",
            "post_id": "2114200152701575656",
            "at": "2026-10-25T03:39:31.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2114200152701575656",
            "quote": "Day 20/ Rest and reset"
          },
          {
            "stage": "timing_update",
            "post_id": "2114200291319124163",
            "at": "2026-10-25T03:40:04.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2114200291319124163",
            "quote": "By midnight PST"
          },
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2114237083652882932",
            "at": "2026-10-25T06:06:16.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2114237083652882932",
            "quote": "It is all propagated. Enjoy some mad codexing tomorrow. Fun week ahead too. https://t.co/qOrzwSeIZZ https://t.co/xKaK95EAly"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-20-verified",
        "kind": "hard_reset",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-20T06:33:48.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2112432076767289678",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2112432076767289678",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2112432076767289678",
            "at": "2026-10-20T06:33:48.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2112432076767289678",
            "quote": "Nevermind, we're still cooking... and reset. Enjoy."
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-15-verified",
        "kind": "unknown",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-15T06:28:13.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2110618732666257557",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2110618732666257557",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "scope_note": "Completion quotes the timing reply, but reset mechanics and eligible plans are not specified.",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "timing_update",
            "post_id": "2110595554036400151",
            "at": "2026-10-15T04:56:07.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2110595554036400151",
            "quote": "Landing within the next 2 hours"
          },
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2110618732666257557",
            "at": "2026-10-15T06:28:13.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2110618732666257557",
            "quote": "Done and dusted"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-13-verified",
        "kind": "hard_reset",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-13T05:06:06.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2109873287853707513",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109873287853707513",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "announcement",
            "post_id": "2109812360596865224",
            "at": "2026-10-13T01:03:59.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109812360596865224",
            "quote": "Global reset landing by EOD PST time. Enjoy"
          },
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2109873287853707513",
            "at": "2026-10-13T05:06:06.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109873287853707513",
            "quote": "What would you like with your side of reset? It's done. https://t.co/gpNaB6otgy"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-11-verified",
        "kind": "hard_reset",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-11T04:01:09.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2109132167112782291",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109132167112782291",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "announcement",
            "post_id": "2109045392684032299",
            "at": "2026-10-10T22:16:20.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109045392684032299",
            "quote": "Global reset by EOD. May the tokens do good things for you."
          },
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2109132167112782291",
            "at": "2026-10-11T04:01:09.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109132167112782291",
            "quote": "Put the reset in the bag. All propagated. https://t.co/HGxaD3Zdcj"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-07-verified",
        "kind": "hard_reset",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-07T03:35:09.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2107676072871600470",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2107676072871600470",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2107676072871600470",
            "at": "2026-10-07T03:35:09.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2107676072871600470",
            "quote": "Therefore ... the reset has been processed. Enjoy!"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "reset-2026-10-02-verified",
        "kind": "hard_reset",
        "confirmed_at": "2026-10-02T21:18:48.000Z",
        "reset_at": null,
        "time_basis": "confirmation_post",
        "confirmation_post_id": "2106131810921136451",
        "confirmation_url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2106131810921136451",
        "author": "thsottiaux",
        "timeline": [
          {
            "stage": "announcement",
            "post_id": "2105843926221660585",
            "at": "2026-10-02T02:14:51.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2105843926221660585",
            "quote": "Global reset landing tomorrow 10am PST for all paid ChatGPT accounts. Apologies for the slow start with GPT-6.1"
          },
          {
            "stage": "confirmation",
            "post_id": "2106131810921136451",
            "at": "2026-10-02T21:18:48.000Z",
            "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2106131810921136451",
            "quote": "Reset all propagated. Enjoy. https://t.co/GaVJhbptR0"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "excluded_examples": [
      {
        "post_id": "2112592264686149749",
        "reason": "Credits correction for affected accounts, not a global or banked reset."
      },
      {
        "post_id": "2109778880341151901",
        "reason": "Tokens per second is speed, not a quota change."
      },
      {
        "post_id": "2111566005684289735",
        "reason": "Standalone Done has no reply or quote linking it to a reset in the returned X API record; do not infer completion from temporal proximity."
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "Confirmation-post time is not an exact rollout or per-account delivery timestamp.",
      "Original 12-event backtest sample and its metrics remain frozen separately."
    ]
  }
}